Karancin motoci na guntu bai ƙare ba tukuna, kuma an sake shigar da “karancin batir” wutar lantarki.
Kwanan nan, jita-jita game da karancin batirin wutar lantarki na sabbin motocin makamashi na karuwa. Zamanin Ningde ya bayyana a fili cewa an garzaya da su don jigilar kayayyaki. Daga baya, an yi ta yayata cewa He Xiaopeng ya je masana'antar ne domin ya kwarmata kaya, har ma tashar CCTV Finance ta ruwaito.
Shahararrun masu kera motoci a gida da waje su ma sun jaddada wannan batu. Weilai Li Bin ya taba cewa karancin batura da kwakwalwan kwamfuta na takaita karfin samar da Motar Weilai. Bayan sayar da motoci a watan Yuli, Weilai kuma. Ya jaddada matsalolin sarkar samar da kayayyaki.
Tesla yana da buƙatun batura mafi girma. A halin yanzu, ta kafa dangantakar haɗin gwiwa tare da kamfanonin batir da yawa. Har ila yau Musk ya fitar da sanarwa mai ƙarfi: kamfanonin batir masu amfani da wutar lantarki suna siyan batura masu yawa kamar yadda suke samarwa. A gefe guda kuma, Tesla yana kan gwajin batura 4680.
A gaskiya ma, ayyukan kamfanonin batir na iya ba da cikakken ra'ayi game da wannan batu. Tun daga farkon wannan shekara, kamfanonin batir na cikin gida da yawa kamar Ningde Times, BYD, AVIC Lithium, Guoxuan Hi-Tech da ma makamashin zuma na zuma sun sanya hannu kan kwangiloli a kasar Sin. Gina masana'anta. Ayyukan kamfanonin batir kuma da alama suna sanar da kasancewar ƙarancin batir ɗin wuta.
To yaya girman karancin batir din wutar lantarki ya kai? Menene babban dalili? Yaya kamfanonin motoci da kamfanonin batir suka amsa? Don haka, Che Dongxi ya tuntubi wasu kamfanonin mota da na cikin kamfanin batir kuma ya sami wasu amsoshi na gaske.
1. Rashin wutar lantarki ta hanyar sadarwa, an dade da shirya wasu kamfanonin mota
A zamanin sabbin motocin makamashi, batura masu wuta sun zama maɓalli mai mahimmancin albarkatun ƙasa. Duk da haka, a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, ra'ayoyin game da ƙarancin batura suna yaduwa. Akwai ma rahotannin kafafen yada labarai cewa, wanda ya kafa kamfanin na Xiaopeng Motors, He Xiaopeng, ya zauna tsawon mako guda a zamanin Ningde domin neman batura, amma daga baya He Xiaopeng da kansa ya musanta wannan labarin. A wata hira ta musamman da wani dan jarida daga kamfanin dillancin labarai na kasar Sin, He Xiaopeng ya ce, wannan rahoton ba gaskiya ba ne, kuma ya gani daga labarin.
Amma irin waɗannan jita-jita kuma suna nuna ƙara ko žasa cewa akwai ƙarancin batir a cikin sabbin motocin makamashi.
Koyaya, akwai ra'ayoyi daban-daban game da ƙarancin baturi a cikin rahotanni daban-daban. Ainihin halin da ake ciki bai bayyana ba. Domin fahimtar karancin batirin wutar lantarki a halin yanzu, mota da masana'antar batir wutar lantarki sun yi magana da mutane da yawa a masana'antar kera motoci da wutar lantarki. Wasu bayanai na farko.
Kamfanin mota ya fara tattaunawa da wasu mutane daga kamfanin motar. Ko da yake Xiaopeng Motors ya fara ba da labarin karancin batir, a lokacin da motar ke neman tabbaci daga kamfanin Xiaopeng Motors, daya bangaren ya amsa da cewa "Babu irin wannan labari a halin yanzu, kuma bayanan hukuma za su yi nasara."
A cikin watan Yulin da ya gabata, kamfanin na Xiaopeng Motors ya sayar da sabbin motoci 8,040, wanda ya karu da kashi 22 cikin 100 a duk wata, da karuwar kashi 228 cikin 100 a duk shekara, abin da ya karya tarihin isar da kayayyaki na wata guda. Ana kuma iya ganin cewa, haƙiƙa buƙatar batir na Xiaopeng Motors yana ƙaruwa. , Amma ko batir ya shafi odar, jami'an Xiaopeng ba su ce ba.
A gefe guda, Weilai ya bayyana damuwarsa game da batura da wuri. A watan Maris na wannan shekara, Li Bin ya ce, samar da batir a kashi na biyu na wannan shekara zai gamu da cikas mafi girma. "Batura da guntu (karancin) za su iyakance isar da Weilai a kowane wata zuwa kusan motoci 7,500, kuma wannan yanayin zai ci gaba har zuwa Yuli."
Kwanaki kadan da suka gabata, Weilai Automobile ya sanar da cewa ya sayar da sabbin motoci 7,931 a watan Yuli. Bayan da aka sanar da adadin tallace-tallacen, Ma Lin, babban darektan sadarwar kamfanoni da kuma daraktan hulda da jama'a na Weilai Automobile, ya ce a cikin abokansa na sirri: Duk shekara, batirin mai digiri 100 zai kasance nan ba da jimawa ba. Isar da Norway ba ta da nisa. Ƙarfin sarkar samar da kayayyaki bai isa ya cika buƙatun ba."
Koyaya, dangane da ko sarkar kayan da Ma Lin ya ambata baturin wuta ne ko guntuwar abin hawa, har yanzu babu tabbas. Sai dai wasu rahotannin kafafen yada labarai sun ce duk da cewa Weilai ya fara isar da batura masu digiri 100, amma a halin yanzu shaguna da yawa sun kare.
Kwanan nan, Chedong ya kuma yi hira da ma'aikatan kamfanin kera motoci na kan iyaka. Ma’aikatan kamfanin sun ce rahoton na yanzu ya nuna cewa lallai an samu karancin batir, kuma kamfanin nasu ya riga ya shirya kaya a shekarar 2020, haka yau da gobe. Karancin baturi ba zai shafe shekaru ba.
Che Dong ya ci gaba da tambaya ko kiyayyarsa na nufin karfin samarwa da aka riga aka yi rajista da kamfanin batir ko siyan samfurin kai tsaye don adanawa a cikin sito. Sai dayan bangaren ya amsa da cewa yana da duka.
Che Dong ya kuma tambayi wani kamfanin mota na gargajiya, amma amsar ita ce, har yanzu ba ta yi tasiri ba.
Daga tuntubar da kamfanonin kera motoci, da alama batirin wutar lantarki na yanzu bai gamu da karanci ba, kuma galibin kamfanonin mota ba su fuskanci matsalar samar da batir ba. Amma idan aka kalli lamarin da idon basira, ba za a iya yin hukunci da hujjar kamfanin mota ba, kuma hujjar kamfanin batir ma na da matukar muhimmanci.
2. Kamfanonin batir sun ce ba za su iya samarwa ba, kuma masu samar da kayayyaki suna gaggawar zuwa aiki.
A lokacin da yake tattaunawa da kamfanonin mota, kamfanin ya kuma tuntubi wasu masu kula da kamfanonin batir.
Ningde Times ya dade yana bayyanawa kasashen waje cewa karfin batura ya yi tsauri. A farkon wannan watan Mayu, a taron masu hannun jari na Ningde Times, shugaban Ningde Times, Zeng Yuqun, ya ce "da gaske abokan ciniki ba za su iya jure bukatar kayayyaki na kwanan nan ba."
Lokacin da Che Dongxi ya tambayi jaridar Ningde Times don tabbatarwa, amsar da ya samu ita ce "Zeng Zeng ya ba da sanarwar jama'a," wanda za a iya ɗaukarsa a matsayin tabbatar da wannan bayanin. Bayan ƙarin bincike, Che Dong ya gano cewa ba duka batura a zamanin Ningde ba ne a halin yanzu. A halin yanzu, samar da manyan batura ya fi ƙanƙanta.
CATL ita ce babbar mai samar da manyan batura lithium na nickel a cikin kasar Sin, da kuma babban mai samar da batir NCM811. Babban baturi wanda CATL ya bayyana yana nufin wannan baturi. Yana da kyau a lura cewa yawancin batura da Weilai ke amfani da su a halin yanzu sune NCM811.
Kamfanin batir mai duhun doki na Honeycomb Energy shi ma ya bayyana wa Che Dongxi cewa karfin batirin wutar lantarki a halin yanzu bai wadatar ba, kuma an tanadi karfin samar da wutar lantarki na bana.
Bayan Che Dongxi ya tambayi Guoxuan High-Tech, ya kuma sami labarin cewa ƙarfin samar da batir ɗin wutar lantarki bai wadatar ba, kuma an yi tanadin ƙarfin samarwa da ake da shi. Tun da farko, ma'aikatan Guoxuan Hi-Tech sun bayyana a Intanet cewa don tabbatar da samar da batura ga manyan abokan ciniki na ƙasa, tushen samar da kayan yana aiki akan kari don kamawa.
Bugu da kari, kamar yadda kafafen yada labarai na jama'a suka ruwaito, a watan Mayun bana, Yiwei Lithium Energy ya bayyana a cikin wata sanarwa cewa masana'antun da ake da su da kuma layukan samar da kayayyaki na kamfanin suna aiki gadan-gadan, amma ana sa ran za a ci gaba da samar da kayayyakin a takaice. wadata na shekarar da ta gabata.
BYD kuma yana ƙara yawan siyan albarkatun ƙasa kwanan nan, kuma da alama shiri ne don ƙara ƙarfin samarwa.
Tsantsan ƙarfin samar da wutar lantarki na kamfanonin batir ya yi daidai da yanayin aiki na kamfanonin albarkatun ƙasa.
Ganfeng Lithium babban mai samar da kayan lithium ne a kasar Sin, kuma yana da huldar hadin gwiwa kai tsaye da kamfanonin batir da yawa. A wata hira da manema labarai, Huang Jingping, darektan sashen inganci na masana'antar batir wutar lantarki ta Ganfeng Lithium, ya ce: Tun daga farkon shekara zuwa yanzu, a zahiri ba mu daina kera ba. Domin wata daya, za mu m zama a cikin cikakken samar for 28 days. "
Dangane da martanin kamfanonin mota, kamfanonin batir, da masu samar da albarkatun ƙasa, ana iya ƙarasa da cewa akwai ƙarancin batir ɗin wuta a sabon matakin. Wasu kamfanonin motoci sun yi shiri a gaba don tabbatar da samar da batir na yanzu. Tasirin ƙarfin samar da baturi.
A gaskiya matsalar karancin batir ba sabuwar matsala ce da ta bulla a shekarun baya ba, to me ya sa wannan matsalar ta yi kamari a ‘yan kwanakin nan?
3. Sabuwar kasuwar makamashi ta wuce yadda ake tsammani, kuma farashin albarkatun kasa ya tashi sosai
Kwatankwacin dalilin karancin kwakwalwan kwamfuta, karancin batir din wutar lantarki kuma ba zai iya rabuwa da kasuwar da ta tashi.
Bisa kididdigar da kungiyar kamfanonin kera motoci ta kasar Sin ta fitar, a farkon rabin shekarar bana, yawan sabbin motocin makamashi da na fasinjoji a cikin gida ya kai miliyan 1.215, wanda ya karu da kashi 200.6 cikin dari a duk shekara.
Daga cikin su, sabbin motocin miliyan 1.149 sun hada da sabbin motocin fasinja masu makamashi, karuwar shekara-shekara da kashi 217.3%, wanda 958,000 daga cikinsu samfurin lantarki ne tsantsa, karuwar shekara-shekara na 255.8%, da nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in toshe-in. ya kasance 191,000, karuwa a kowace shekara da kashi 105.8%.
Bugu da kari, an samu sabbin motocin kasuwanci na makamashi 67,000, an samu karuwar kashi 57.6 cikin dari a kowace shekara, daga cikin motocin da ake samarwa masu amfani da wutar lantarki zalla ya kai 65,000, an samu karuwar kashi 64.5 cikin dari a duk shekara, da samar da nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in iri. motocin kasuwanci sun kai dubu 10, raguwar shekara-shekara da kashi 49.9%. Daga wadannan bayanai, ba abu ne mai wahala a ga cewa, kasuwar sabbin motocin makamashi mai zafi na bana, ko dai na'urorin lantarki masu tsafta ko na toshe, an samu ci gaba sosai, kuma karuwar kasuwar gaba daya ta ninka sau biyu.
Bari mu kalli halin da batura masu wuta ke ciki. A farkon rabin wannan shekara, ƙarfin batirin wutar lantarki na ƙasata ya kai 74.7GWh, jimlar karuwar kashi 217.5% kowace shekara. Ta fuskar girma, fitar da batirin wutar lantarki shi ma ya inganta sosai, amma fitar da batir ɗin ya wadatar?
Bari mu yi lissafi mai sauƙi, ɗaukar ƙarfin baturi na motar fasinja kamar 60kWh. Bukatar baturi na motocin fasinja shine: 985000*60kWh=59100000kWh, wanda shine 59.1GWh (tsararrun lissafi, sakamakon shine don tunani kawai).
Ƙarfin baturi na ƙirar matasan plug-in yana kusa da 20kWh. Bisa ga wannan, buƙatar baturi na samfurin matasan plug-in shine: 191000*20=3820000kWh, wanda shine 3.82GWh.
Adadin motocin kasuwancin lantarki masu tsabta ya fi girma, kuma buƙatar ƙarfin baturi kuma ya fi girma, wanda zai iya kaiwa 90kWh ko 100kWh. Daga wannan lissafin, buƙatar baturi na motocin kasuwanci shine 65000*90kWh=5850000kWh, wanda shine 5.85GWh.
Kusan ƙididdigewa, sabbin motocin makamashi suna buƙatar akalla 68.77GWh na batura masu wuta a farkon rabin shekara, kuma yawan batir ɗin wutar lantarki a farkon rabin shekara shine 74.7GWh. Bambanci tsakanin dabi'u ba babba bane, amma wannan baya la'akari da cewa an ba da umarnin batir wutar lantarki amma har yanzu ba a samar da su ba. Don ƙirar mota, idan an haɗa ƙimar tare, sakamakon na iya ma wuce abin da ake fitarwa na batura masu ƙarfi.
A daya hannun kuma, ci gaba da karuwar farashin danyen batirin wutar lantarki ya kuma takaita iya samar da kamfanonin batir. Bayanai na jama'a sun nuna cewa a halin yanzu farashin lithium carbonate na baturi yana tsakanin yuan 85,000 zuwa yuan 89,000, wanda ya karu da kashi 68.9% daga farashin yuan 51,500 a farkon shekara idan aka kwatanta da na bara 48,000. yuan/ton. An haɓaka da kusan ninki biyu.
Hakanan farashin lithium hydroxide ya tashi daga yuan 49,000 a farkon shekara zuwa yuan 95,000-97,000 a halin yanzu, karuwar da kashi 95.92%. Farashin lithium hexafluorophosphate ya tashi daga mafi ƙanƙanta na yuan 64,000 a shekarar 2020 zuwa kusan yuan 400,000, kuma farashin ya ƙaru fiye da sau shida.
Dangane da bayanai daga Ping An Securities, a farkon rabin shekara, farashin kayan ternary ya tashi da kashi 30%, kuma farashin kayan phosphate na lithium baƙin ƙarfe ya tashi da kashi 50%.
A takaice dai, manyan hanyoyin fasaha guda biyu na yanzu a cikin filin baturin wutar lantarki suna fuskantar hauhawar farashin albarkatun kasa. Shugaban Ningde Times Zeng Yuqun ya kuma yi magana game da hauhawar farashin albarkatun batir a taron masu hannun jari. Haɓakar farashin albarkatun ƙasa kuma za ta yi tasiri sosai kan fitar da batir ɗin wuta.
Bugu da ƙari, ba shi da sauƙi don ƙara ƙarfin samarwa a filin baturi mai ƙarfi. Ana ɗaukar kimanin shekaru 1.5 zuwa 2 don gina sabuwar masana'antar batir wuta, kuma tana buƙatar saka hannun jari na biliyoyin daloli. A cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, haɓaka iya aiki ba gaskiya bane.
Har yanzu masana'antar batirin wutar lantarki masana'anta ce mai shinge, tare da ingantattun buƙatu don iyakokin fasaha. Domin tabbatar da daidaiton samfur, yawancin kamfanonin mota za su ba da umarni tare da manyan 'yan wasa, wanda ya haifar da kamfanonin batir da yawa a saman don ɗaukar Walked fiye da 80% na kasuwa. Hakazalika, ƙarfin samar da manyan 'yan wasa kuma yana ƙayyade ƙarfin samar da masana'antu.
A cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, ƙarancin batirin wutar lantarki na iya kasancewa har yanzu, amma an yi sa'a, kamfanonin motoci da kamfanonin batir ɗin wutar lantarki sun riga sun nemi mafita.
4. Kamfanonin batir ba sa aiki a lokacin da suke gina masana'antu da saka hannun jari a ma'adinai
Ga kamfanonin batir, ƙarfin samarwa da albarkatun ƙasa batutuwa biyu ne waɗanda ke buƙatar warwarewa cikin gaggawa.
Kusan duk batura yanzu suna faɗaɗa ƙarfin samar da su. Kamfanin CATL ya ci gaba da zuba jari a manyan ayyukan masana'antar batir guda biyu a Sichuan da Jiangsu, tare da zuba jarin da ya kai yuan biliyan 42. Kamfanin batir da aka saka a Yibin, Sichuan zai zama ɗaya daga cikin manyan masana'antar batir a CATL.
Bugu da kari, Ningde Times yana da aikin samar da baturi na Ningde Cheliwan lithium-ion, aikin fadada batirin lithium-ion a Huxi, da masana'antar batir a Qinghai. Bisa ga shirin, nan da shekarar 2025, za a kara yawan karfin samar da batir na CATL zuwa 450GWh.
BYD kuma yana haɓaka ƙarfin samarwa. A halin yanzu, an shigar da batura na masana'antar Chongqing a cikin samarwa, tare da ikon samar da wutar lantarki kusan 10GWh kowace shekara. BYD ya kuma gina tashar batir a Qinghai. Bugu da kari, BYD yana shirin gina sabbin na'urorin batura a sabon gundumar Xi'an da Chongqing Liangjiang.
Dangane da shirin BYD, ana sa ran jimlar ƙarfin samarwa gami da batura ruwan ruwa zai ƙaru zuwa 100GWh nan da shekarar 2022.
Bugu da kari, wasu kamfanonin batir irin su Guoxuan High-Tech, Batirin Lithium AVIC, da makamashin saƙar zuma suma suna hanzarta tsara ƙarfin samarwa. Guoxuan Hi-Tech zai saka hannun jari a aikin samar da batirin lithium a Jiangxi da Hefei daga Mayu zuwa Yuni na wannan shekara. A cewar shirin Guoxuan Hi-Tech, duka na'urorin batura za a fara aiki a cikin 2022.
Guoxuan High-Tech ya annabta cewa nan da 2025, za a iya ƙara ƙarfin samar da baturi zuwa 100GWh. Batirin Lithium AVIC ya ci gaba da saka hannun jari a sansanonin samar da batir da ayyukan ma'adinai a Xiamen, Chengdu da Wuhan a watan Mayu na wannan shekara, kuma yana shirin kara karfin samar da batir zuwa 200GWh nan da shekarar 2025.
A watan Afrilu da Mayu na wannan shekara, Kamfanin samar da makamashi na zuma ya sanya hannu kan ayyukan batir a Ma'anshan da Nanjing. Bisa ga kididdigar da aka yi, shirin samar da makamashi na Honeycomb Energy a kowace shekara na samar da wutar lantarki a Ma'anshan ya kai 28GWh. A watan Mayu, makamashin zuma na zuma ya rattaba hannu kan wata yarjejeniya da yankin raya birnin Nanjing Lishui, inda ake shirin zuba jarin Yuan biliyan 5.6 wajen gina tashar samar da batir mai karfin 14.6GWh.
Bugu da kari, makamashin zuma na zuma ya riga ya mallaki masana'antar ta Changzhou kuma tana kara kaimi wajen aikin gina masana'antar Suining. A cewar shirin makamashi na Honeycomb, 200GWh na iya samar da wutar lantarki kuma za a samu a shekarar 2025.
Ta hanyar waɗannan ayyukan, ba shi da wahala a gano cewa kamfanonin batir na wutar lantarki a halin yanzu suna haɓaka ƙarfin samar da su. An ƙididdige kusan cewa nan da 2025, ƙarfin samar da waɗannan kamfanoni zai kai 1TWh. Da zarar an shigar da waɗannan masana'antu duka, za a rage ƙarancin batir ɗin wutar lantarki yadda ya kamata.
Baya ga faɗaɗa ƙarfin samarwa, kamfanonin batir kuma suna turawa a fannin albarkatun ƙasa. CATL ta sanar a karshen shekarar da ta gabata cewa za ta kashe yuan biliyan 19 don saka hannun jari a kamfanonin sarkar batir. A karshen watan Mayun wannan shekara, Yiwei Lithium Energy da Huayou Cobalt sun saka hannun jari a wani aikin narka sinadarin nickel hydrometallurgical a Indonesia kuma suka kafa kamfani. A cewar shirin, wannan aikin zai samar da kusan tan 120,000 na karfen nickel da kusan tan 15,000 na karafan cobalt a kowace shekara. Samfurin
Guoxuan Hi-Tech da Yichun Mining Co., Ltd. sun kafa kamfanin hako ma'adinai na hadin gwiwa, wanda kuma ya karfafa tsarin albarkatun lithium na sama.
Wasu kamfanonin motoci ma sun fara kera batir nasu wuta. Rukunin Volkswagen yana haɓaka daidaitattun ƙwayoyin batir ɗinsa tare da tura batir phosphate na lithium baƙin ƙarfe, batir lithium masu ƙarfi, manyan batir manganese da batura masu ƙarfi. Tana shirin gina gine-gine a duniya nan da shekarar 2030. Kamfanoni shida sun samu karfin samar da wutar lantarki mai karfin 240GWh.
Kafofin yada labarai na kasashen ketare sun ruwaito cewa, Mercedes-Benz ma na shirin kera batirin wutar lantarkin nata.
Baya ga batura masu sarrafa kansu, a wannan mataki, kamfanonin motoci sun kulla hadin gwiwa da wasu masu samar da batir don tabbatar da cewa tushen batir ya wadata, da kuma magance matsalar karancin wutar lantarki gwargwadon iko.
5. Kammalawa: Shin ƙarancin baturi zai zama yaƙi mai tsayi?
Bayan zurfafa bincike da nazari da muka yi a sama, za mu iya gano ta hanyar tattaunawa da bincike da kuma kididdigar ƙididdiga cewa lallai akwai ƙarancin batir ɗin wutar lantarki, amma bai yi tasiri sosai a fannin sabbin motocin makamashi ba. Yawancin kamfanonin motoci har yanzu suna da wasu hannun jari.
Dalilin karancin batir wutar lantarki a kera motoci ba zai iya rabuwa da hauhawar sabuwar kasuwar motocin makamashi ba. Siyar da sabbin motocin makamashi a farkon rabin farkon wannan shekara ya karu da kusan kashi 200% a daidai wannan lokacin na bara. Yawan ci gaban ya fito fili sosai, wanda kuma ya haifar da kamfanonin batir Yana da wahala ga iyawar samarwa don ci gaba da buƙata a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.
A halin yanzu, kamfanonin batir masu amfani da wutar lantarki da sabbin kamfanonin samar da makamashi suna tunanin hanyoyin magance matsalar karancin batir. Mafi mahimmancin ma'auni shine faɗaɗa ƙarfin samar da kamfanonin batir, kuma haɓaka ƙarfin samarwa yana buƙatar wani sake zagayowar.
Don haka, a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, batir ɗin wuta za su yi ƙarancin wadata, amma a cikin dogon lokaci, tare da sakin ƙarfin baturi a hankali, ba a tabbatar ko ƙarfin baturi zai wuce abin da ake buƙata ba, kuma za a iya samun yanayin da ake bukata. zuwa gaba. Kuma wannan na iya zama dalilin da ya sa kamfanonin batir masu amfani da wutar lantarki suka ci gaba da haɓaka ƙarfin samarwa.
Lokacin aikawa: Agusta-06-2021