Kodayake a cikin rabin na biyu na 2021, wasu kamfanonin motoci sun nuna cewa za a inganta matsalar ƙarancin guntu a cikin 2022, amma OEMs sun haɓaka sayayya da tunanin wasa tare da juna, tare da wadatar da ƙarfin samar da guntu na manyan motoci.
A lokaci guda, tare da saurin sauye-sauye na masana'antar kera motoci zuwa wutar lantarki da hankali, sarkar samar da guntu na masana'antu kuma za ta sami sauye-sauye masu ban mamaki.
1. Jin zafi na MCU a ƙarƙashin rashin mahimmanci
Yanzu idan aka yi la’akari da karancin kayan masarufi da aka fara a karshen shekarar 2020, babu shakka barkewar cutar ita ce babban abin da ke haifar da rashin daidaito tsakanin wadata da bukatuwar kwakwalwan motoci. Kodayake m bincike na tsarin aikace-aikacen kwakwalwan kwamfuta na MCU na duniya (microcontroller) ya nuna cewa daga 2019 zuwa 2020, rarrabawar MCUs a cikin aikace-aikacen lantarki na kera zai mamaye kashi 33% na kasuwar aikace-aikacen ƙasa, amma idan aka kwatanta da ofishin kan layi mai nisa Dangane da masu zanen guntu na sama, tushen guntu da marufi da kamfanonin gwaji sun sami matsala sosai.
Cibiyoyin masana'antu na Chip na masana'antu masu fa'ida za su sha wahala daga matsanancin ƙarancin ma'aikata da ƙarancin kuɗi a cikin 2020. Bayan ƙirar guntu na sama da aka canza zuwa bukatun kamfanonin mota, ba ta iya yin cikakken jadawalin samar da kayayyaki ba, yana mai da wahala a iya isar da kwakwalwan kwamfuta zuwa cikakkiyar ƙarfi. A hannun masana'antar mota, yanayin rashin isasshen ƙarfin samar da abin hawa ya bayyana.
A cikin watan Agustan shekarar da ta gabata, kamfanin STMicroelectronics' Muar da ke Muar, Malaysia an tilastawa rufe wasu masana'antu saboda tasirin sabon kambi, kuma rufewar kai tsaye ya haifar da samar da kwakwalwan kwamfuta na Bosch ESP/IPB, VCU, TCU da sauran tsarin da ke cikin yanayin samar da kayayyaki na dogon lokaci.
Bugu da kari, a cikin 2021, bala'o'in da ke biye da su kamar girgizar kasa da gobara za su kuma sa wasu masana'antun ba za su iya samar da su cikin kankanin lokaci ba. A watan Fabrairun shekarar da ta gabata girgizar kasar ta yi mummunar barna ga na'urar lantarki ta Renesas ta Japan, daya daga cikin manyan kamfanonin da ke samar da guntu.
Rashin yanke hukunci game da buƙatun buƙatun cikin abin hawa ta kamfanonin mota, tare da gaskiyar cewa fabs na sama sun canza ƙarfin samar da kwakwalwan kwamfuta cikin abin hawa zuwa guntun mabukaci don tabbatar da farashin kayan, ya haifar da MCU da CIS waɗanda ke da mafi girman haɗuwa tsakanin kwakwalwan kwamfuta na keɓaɓɓu da samfuran lantarki na yau da kullun. ( firikwensin hoto na CMOS) yana cikin ƙarancin ƙarancin gaske.
Ta fuskar fasaha, akwai nau'ikan na'urori masu sarrafa motoci na gargajiya aƙalla guda 40, kuma jimillar kekunan da aka yi amfani da su sun kai 500-600, waɗanda galibi sun haɗa da MCU, semiconductors (IGBT, MOSFET, da sauransu), na'urori masu auna firikwensin da na'urorin analog daban-daban. Motoci masu cin gashin kansu kuma Za a yi amfani da jerin samfura irin su kwakwalwan taimako na ADAS, CIS, na'urori masu sarrafa AI, lidars, radars-milimita da MEMS.
Dangane da adadin buƙatun abin hawa, abin da ya fi shafa a cikin wannan ƙarancin ƙarancin shine motar gargajiya tana buƙatar fiye da guntu MCU 70, kuma MCU na kera motoci ita ce ESP (Tsarin Tsarin Tsabtace Wutar Lantarki) da ECU (Babban ɓangarori na guntun sarrafa abin hawa). Daukar babban dalilin faduwar Haval H6 da Babban Wall ya bayar sau da yawa tun shekarar da ta gabata a matsayin misali, Great Wall ya ce mummunan raguwar tallace-tallace na H6 a cikin watanni da yawa ya faru ne saboda karancin wadatar Bosch ESP da yake amfani da shi. Shahararriyar Euler Black Cat da White Cat suma sun ba da sanarwar dakatar da samarwa na wucin gadi a watan Maris na wannan shekara saboda batutuwa irin su rage samar da ESP da hauhawar farashin guntu.
Abin kunya, kodayake masana'antar guntu ta atomatik suna ginawa da ba da damar sabbin layin samar da wafer a cikin 2021, da ƙoƙarin canja wurin aiwatar da kwakwalwan kwamfuta zuwa tsohuwar layin samarwa da sabon layin samar da inci 12 a nan gaba, don haɓaka ƙarfin samarwa da samun tattalin arziƙin sikelin, Koyaya, sake zagayowar isar da kayan aikin semiconductor sau da yawa fiye da rabin shekara. Bugu da ƙari, yana ɗaukar lokaci mai tsawo don daidaita layin samarwa, tabbatar da samfur da haɓaka ƙarfin samarwa, wanda ke sa sabon ƙarfin samarwa zai iya yin tasiri a cikin 2023-2024. .
Ya kamata a ambata cewa duk da cewa matsin lamba ya daɗe na dogon lokaci, kamfanonin motoci har yanzu suna da kyakkyawan fata game da kasuwa. Kuma sabon ƙarfin samar da guntu an ƙaddara shi ne don magance rikicin iya aiki mafi girma na yanzu a nan gaba.
2. Sabon fagen fama a karkashin fasahar lantarki
Koyaya, ga masana'antar kera motoci, ƙudurin rikicin guntu na yanzu na iya magance buƙatar gaggawar wadatar kasuwa ta yanzu da buƙatar asymmetry. Dangane da sauye-sauyen masana'antu na lantarki da na hankali, matsin lamba na kwakwalwan kera motoci zai karu sosai nan gaba.
Tare da karuwar buƙatun abin hawa na haɗin gwiwar sarrafa samfuran lantarki, kuma a lokacin haɓaka FOTA da tuƙi ta atomatik, an haɓaka adadin guntu don sabbin motocin makamashi daga 500-600 a zamanin motocin mai zuwa 1,000 zuwa 1,200. Yawan nau'in kuma ya karu daga 40 zuwa 150.
Wasu masana a masana'antar kera motoci sun ce a fagen manyan motocin lantarki masu kaifin basira a nan gaba, adadin kwakwalwan motoci guda ɗaya zai karu sau da yawa zuwa fiye da guda 3,000, kuma adadin semiconductor na kera motoci a cikin kayan aikin gabaɗayan abin hawa zai karu daga 4% a cikin 2019 zuwa 12 a cikin 2025 ba zai karu da 2% kawai ba. zamanin da fasahar lantarki, da bukatar chips ga motoci na karuwa, amma kuma yana nuna saurin tashi a cikin wahalar fasaha da farashin guntu da ake buƙata don motoci.
Ba kamar OEM na gargajiya ba, inda 70% na kwakwalwan kwamfuta don motocin mai sune 40-45nm da 25% ƙananan kwakwalwan kwamfuta sama da 45nm, adadin kwakwalwan kwamfuta a cikin tsarin 40-45nm don manyan motocin lantarki da manyan motocin lantarki a kasuwa ya ragu zuwa 25%. 45%, yayin da rabon kwakwalwan kwamfuta sama da 45nm tsari shine kawai 5%. Daga ra'ayi na fasaha, manyan kwakwalwan kwamfuta masu girma da ke ƙasa da 40nm da ƙarin ci gaba na 10nm da 7nm kwakwalwan kwamfuta babu shakka sabbin wuraren gasa ne a cikin sabon zamanin masana'antar kera motoci.
Dangane da rahoton binciken da Hushan Capital ya fitar a shekarar 2019, yawan na'urorin sarrafa wutar lantarki a cikin dukkan abin hawa ya karu cikin sauri daga kashi 21% a zamanin motocin mai zuwa 55%, yayin da guntuwar MCU ya ragu daga 23% zuwa 11%.
Koyaya, haɓaka ƙarfin samar da guntu da masana'antun daban-daban suka bayyana har yanzu galibi yana iyakance ga guntuwar MCU na gargajiya a halin yanzu da ke da alhakin injin / chassis / sarrafa jiki.
Don motocin fasaha na lantarki, kwakwalwan AI da ke da alhakin fahimtar tuki mai cin gashin kansa da haɗuwa; na'urorin wutar lantarki irin su IGBT (kofa mai rufi dual transistor) da ke da alhakin canza wutar lantarki; kwakwalwan firikwensin firikwensin don saka idanu na radar tuki mai cin gashin kansa ya ƙaru sosai. Zai fi yiwuwa ya zama sabon zagaye na "rashin asali" matsalolin da kamfanonin mota za su fuskanta a mataki na gaba.
Duk da haka, a cikin sabon mataki, abin da ke hana kamfanonin mota ba zai zama matsalar iya aiki da matsalolin waje suka tsoma baki ba, amma "ƙuƙwan wuya" na guntu ƙuntatawa ta bangaren fasaha.
Ɗaukar buƙatun buƙatun AI da hankali ya kawo a matsayin misali, yawan ƙididdiga na software na tuƙi mai sarrafa kansa ya riga ya kai matakin TOPS mai lamba biyu (ayyukan tiriliyan a sakan daya), kuma ikon ƙididdigewa na MCUs na kera motoci na gargajiya ba zai iya cika buƙatun ƙididdiga na motocin masu cin gashin kansu ba. Kwakwalwar AI kamar GPUs, FPGAs, da ASICs sun shiga kasuwar kera motoci.
A farkon rabin shekarar da ta gabata, Horizon a hukumance ya ba da sanarwar cewa samfurin sa na ƙarni na uku na abin hawa, guntuwar Tafiya 5, an fitar da shi bisa hukuma. Dangane da bayanan hukuma, kwakwalwan kwamfuta na Journey 5 suna da ikon sarrafa kwamfuta na 96TOPS, ikon amfani da wutar lantarki na 20W, da ƙimar ƙarfin kuzari na 4.8TOPS/W. . Idan aka kwatanta da fasahar aiwatar da 16nm na FSD (cikakkiyar aikin tuƙi) guntu wanda Tesla ya fitar a cikin 2019, ma'aunin guntu guda ɗaya tare da ikon lissafin 72TOPS, ikon amfani da 36W da ƙimar ƙarfin kuzari na 2TOPS/W an inganta sosai. Wannan nasarar kuma ta sami tagomashi da haɗin gwiwar kamfanonin motoci da yawa da suka haɗa da SAIC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Chery, da Ideal.
Ta hanyar hankali, haɓakar masana'antar ya yi sauri sosai. An fara daga FSD na Tesla, haɓakar kwakwalwan kwamfuta na AI na babban iko kamar buɗe akwatin Pandora ne. Ba da daɗewa ba bayan Tafiya 5, NVIDIA da sauri ta fito da guntun Orin wanda zai zama guntu guda ɗaya. Ƙarfin kwamfuta ya ƙaru zuwa 254TOPS. Dangane da tanadin fasaha, Nvidia har ma ta duba guntuwar Atlan SoC tare da ikon sarrafa kwamfuta guda ɗaya har zuwa 1000TOPS ga jama'a a bara. A halin yanzu, NVDIA yana da ƙarfi ya mamaye matsayin keɓaɓɓu a cikin kasuwar GPU na kwakwalwan kwamfuta na sarrafa motoci, yana riƙe da kason kasuwa na 70% duk shekara.
Ko da yake shigowar giant wayar Huawei a cikin masana'antar kera motoci ya tashi da yunƙurin gasa a cikin masana'antar guntu motoci, sanannen abu ne cewa a ƙarƙashin tsangwama na abubuwan waje, Huawei yana da ƙwarewar ƙira a cikin tsarin 7nm na SoC, amma ba zai iya taimakawa manyan masana'antun guntu ba. kasuwa gabatarwa.
Cibiyoyin bincike sun yi hasashen cewa darajar kekuna na guntu na AI na tashi da sauri daga dalar Amurka 100 a shekarar 2019 zuwa dalar Amurka 1,000+ ta 2025; A lokaci guda kuma, kasuwar hada-hadar motocin AI na cikin gida kuma za ta karu daga dalar Amurka miliyan 900 a shekarar 2019 zuwa 91 a shekarar 2025. Dalar Amurka miliyan dari. Haɓaka saurin buƙatun kasuwa da keɓancewar fasaha na manyan kwakwalwan kwamfuta, babu shakka zai sa ci gaban basirar kamfanonin mota a nan gaba zai fi wahala.
Kama da buƙatun a cikin kasuwar guntu ta AI, IGBT, a matsayin muhimmin ɓangaren semiconductor (ciki har da kwakwalwan kwamfuta, insulating substrates, tashoshi da sauran kayan) a cikin sabon motar makamashi tare da ƙimar farashin har zuwa 8-10%, kuma yana da babban tasiri kan ci gaban masana'antar kera a nan gaba. Ko da yake kamfanonin cikin gida irin su BYD, Star Semiconductor, da Silan Microelectronics sun fara samar da IGBTs ga kamfanonin motoci na cikin gida, a halin yanzu, ƙarfin samar da IGBT na kamfanonin da aka ambata a sama yana da iyakancewa ta hanyar ma'auni na kamfanonin, yana da wuya a iya rufe sababbin hanyoyin samar da makamashi na cikin gida. ci gaban kasuwa.
Labari mai dadi shi ne, a cikin mataki na gaba na SiC na maye gurbin IGBTs, kamfanonin kasar Sin ba su yi nisa a cikin tsararru ba, kuma ana sa ran fadada fasahar kere-kere da samar da kayayyaki na SiC bisa karfin IGBT R&D da wuri-wuri, ana sa ran zai taimaka wa kamfanonin motoci da fasahohin zamani. Masu kera suna samun nasara a mataki na gaba na gasar.
3. Yunyi Semiconductor, core na fasaha masana'antu
Fuskantar karancin kwakwalwan kwamfuta a cikin masana'antar kera motoci, Yunyi ya himmatu wajen magance matsalar samar da kayan aikin na'ura ga abokan ciniki a cikin masana'antar kera motoci. Idan kuna son sani game da na'urorin haɗi na Yunyi Semiconductor kuma ku yi tambaya, da fatan za a danna hanyar haɗin:https://www.yunyi-china.net/semiconductor/.
Lokacin aikawa: Maris 25-2022